ICM Monthly Outlook - November 2024

The US equity market turned full risk-on as soon as the election result became clear. Initially, we saw a relief rally due to the certainty of the outcome, followed quickly by a rally premised on President Trump’s expansionary economic policies, tax cuts, deregulation, and expected higher GDP growth in the US. The fact that US equity markets snapped higher so suddenly tells us the result was not priced in beforehand. Based on the mountain of published analysis so far, it seems the economy kept top billing. Voters punished the Democrats for the ill effects of inflation on their daily lives over the last four years. President Trump has promised to end inflation. US voters will expect him to deliver, but that might be easier said than done. Read on to find out what we believe the market implications will be: ICM Monthly Outlook - November 2024