ICM Monthly Outlook - March 2026

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is now the dominant force shaping global markets, with energy supply disruption feeding directly into inflation expectations, bond yields and investor positioning.

In this edition, we examine the implications of a sustained oil price shock, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and how markets are recalibrating in response. We also outline our current thinking on inflation versus growth, policy constraints, and the conditions required for a stabilisation in risk assets. While uncertainty remains elevated, dislocations of this nature have historically created opportunities over time. Our focus remains on assessing when those opportunities may begin to emerge.

For a comprehensive analysis of the current market dynamics and future outlook, read the full market review here.