ICM Monthly Outlook - January 2025

Happy New Year, everyone.

2024 was another prosperous year for anyone who went long and stayed long risk assets, just like in 2023. The US economy showed remarkable resilience in 2024, confounding the chorus of doomsayers proclaiming an imminent recession for much of the year.

In December, the US Federal Reserve Bank cut interest rates as expected. Chairman Powell’s subsequent commentary tempered expectations for more near-term rate cuts, causing the equity markets to slip. US inflation is now dormant, not extinct. The Federal Reserve Bank’s concern for inflation hinges on President Trump’s policies from here.

We are buying the dip, as we explain in our latest newsletter.