ICM Monthly Outlook - March 2025

February and March have been tumultuous months. It is all President Trump’s doing, as far as we are concerned. Investors can’t make head nor tail of President Trump's daily decrees, diatribes, and general lack of clarity. Some investors have found the Trump cards too hard to hold. Markets like certainty, but right now, they have none, forcing some investors to turn risk-off until the dust settles. So, the market’s general euphoria for President Trump’s victory has waned. The President’s own euphoria seems to have waned, given that he has admitted that the U.S. consumer must endure some economic discomfort. Our central case remains that President Trump will come to his senses before any significant adverse unintended consequences. Let us not forget that the equity market, the bond market, and big business in the U.S. looms large over President Trump if he gets too wayward with these policies.

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