ICM Monthly Outlook - April 2025

Liberation Day has usurped all that went before it this year. Uncertain U.S. policy around tariffs has whipped up strong economic headwinds globally. Investors, politicians, policymakers, and the general public prefer certainty and will think twice in future dealings with the U.S. Can we ever go back to the way it was? We still believe the bond market will rein in President Trump's domineering behaviour. However, in the meantime, economic growth will slow as countries and companies reconsider their relationship with the U.S. while Trump is President. And one day, President Trump will be replaced.

ICM remains committed to our investment process, focusing on facts, ignoring speculation, and taking an investment time horizon that looks beyond the current intraday moves. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. ICM remains nimble and capable of quickly moving the risk dial as we see events unfold. ICM’s bond funds had their most lucrative periods in the aftermath of crises. ICM’s bond funds have largely derisked to avoid any significant drawdown while we await further developments. ICM is happy to have higher-than-normal cash and short-term investments in highly liquid assets, ready to deploy when we have greater certainty.

Find out more in the latest outlook: ICM Monthly Outlook - April 2025